Double-diffusive convection in a plane layer with low thermal conductivity boundaries

a, Locations of affected cemeteries on the Angara River northwest of Lake Baikal, and IBD sharing between the sampled occupants of cemeteries (pairwise sharing lines between sites; greyscale ramp indicates total IBD sharing in segments larger than 3 centimorgans (cM) totalling more than 10 cM in pairwise relationships between sites; Supplementary Note 2). Inset represent the sampled individuals at each site (31 Ust’-Ida I, 8 Bratskii Kamen, 2 Serovo and 5 Shumilkha), with plague detections indicated, and shared graves indicated by shaded areas around individuals. Maps created using Natural Earth Data. b, Kernel density estimates plotted within Bayesian models of the date ranges for the early (red) and late (dark yellow) phases of plague outbreaks at Baikal. Lighter shaded areas correspond to the summed probability distributions prior to modelling; dates used are from individuals identified with plague only. Inset, 95.4% confidence intervals for modelled date ranges at Baikal are shown compared with those from other pre-LNBA plague cases: RV2039 from Latvia¹⁵, Warberg 1 and Warberg 2 from Germany⁶¹ and FRA102 from Sweden¹¹. c, Kernel density estimate modelled radiocarbon date distributions for the four cemetery sites, for all radiocarbon-dated post-weaning age humans (or associated deer tooth pendants), irrespective of DNA sampling. Radiocarbon date modelling undertaken with OxCal v.4.4.4^65,66.